Will the US, South Korea and Japan start a joint military exercise that includes forces from all three countries?

34%
Stable · last 24h

45%
Stable · last 24h
YES if, no later than September 10, 2026, the U.S. government publicly designates or announces sanctions on any bank or banking entity for facilitating Iran-related transactions, according to the U.S. Department of the Treasury or OFAC, or if two or more independent authoritative news outlets formally report such a designation. Otherwise NO. Announcements that are only investigations, warnings, non-binding guidance, or a review without a formal designation or sanctions order by that deadline resolve NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 11, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 11, 2026. The outcome will be settled against apnews.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 45%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the approach of the deadline and the lack of any formal designations so far, it seems unlikely that we'll see any new sanctions or public designations before September 10.

34%
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78%
Stable · last 24h

34%
Stable · last 24h

28%
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32%
-3% last 24h

36%
+1% last 24h
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