Will total area burned by wildfires in Europe in 2026 exceed 500,000 hectares?

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YES if Prev'Air's publicly posted hourly observations show at least one automatic air‑quality monitoring station that Prev'Air or the regional air‑quality network lists as located in the administrative region Île‑de‑France recorded an hourly ozone (O3) concentration of 180 µg/m³ or higher for any hour between 00:00 and 23:59:59 on 15 August 2026 (local date). Otherwise NO. Preferably Prev'Air's hourly observations will be used; Atmo Île‑de‑France station logs or official regional government bulletins quoting station hourly values may be used as corroborating evidence.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 14, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 15, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tf1info.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 72%, based on 59 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledI'm betting against this happening. With the current ozone levels and just one day left, it's unlikely we see the concentration hit 180 µg/m³ in Île-de-France tomorrow.

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65%
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