Will Amazon Leo have 400 or more satellites in orbit by Aug 31, 2026?

72%
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35%
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YES if, according to AEMET's Meteoalerta archived warnings for August 17, 2026, at least one area in Spain was assigned an 'aviso naranja' (orange alert) or an 'aviso rojo' (red alert) for extreme high temperatures at any time during the local date August 17, 2026. Otherwise NO. Authoritative source: AEMET Meteoalerta archived warnings for August 17, 2026.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 16, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 18, 2026. The outcome will be settled against aemet.es. For now, the crowd puts YES at 35%, based on 17 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven tomorrow's forecast with extreme heat warnings only at yellow, it's unlikely Spain will see any orange or red alerts on the 17th. Bet against it.

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27%
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63%
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23%
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35%
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