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ScienceOpened Aug 16 · Results Aug 18
Will any area in Spain have an AEMET 'aviso naranja' or 'aviso rojo' for extreme heat on August 17?
42%
Stable · last 24h
📊 117 bettors💎 2.8K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 18🤖 Context
The market's rule looks for any AEMET Meteoalerta archived warning showing at least one Spanish area assigned an 'aviso naranja' or 'aviso rojo' for extreme high temperatures at any time during the local date August 17, 2026. AEMET's archive shows multiple areas on aviso naranja for extreme heat that day, for example Campiña cordobesa, Miño de Ourense and Miño de Pontevedra, each listed as naranja from 13:00 to 20:59 on August 17, 2026. Because at least one area met the rule during that local date, the condition is satisfied and the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes42%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 58% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Extracted condition: Did any Spanish area have an AEMET aviso nivel naranja or rojo for 'extreme high temperatures (heat)' at any time during local date 2026-08-17? Target window: the local date 2026-08-17 (full day). Observations used: the supplied AEMET Meteoalerta archived warnings for 2026-08-17. The archive lists multiple areas at 'naranja (orange)' under the hazard 'extreme high temperatures (heat)' on 2026-08-17 (for example: Campiña cordobesa — naranja from 2026-08-17T13:00:00+02:00 to 2026-08-17T20:59:59+02:00; Miño de Ourense — naranja from 2026-08-17T13:00:00+02:00 to 2026-08-17T20:59:59+02:00; Miño de Pontevedra — naranja same interval). Comparison: at least one area reached naranja for the specified hazard during 2026-08-17, satisfying the YES condition.
Source: aemet.esKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 42%
- Predictions made
- 117
- Credits staked
- 2,777
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Aug 16, 2026
- Closes
- Aug 16, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 18, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- aemet.es
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.ai
Given tomorrow's forecast with extreme heat warnings only at yellow, it's unlikely Spain will see any orange or red alerts on the 17th. Bet against it.
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