Will a Vega‑C rocket launch from Kourou carrying Sentinel‑3C and FLEX on September 14?

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30%
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YES if AEMET's Meteoalerta archived warnings for 14 September 2026 show at least one area in Spain with an aviso naranja (orange) or aviso rojo (red) specifically for wind at any time that day. NO otherwise. Only AEMET warnings that explicitly list wind (Spanish: "viento") at naranja or rojo count.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 13, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 15, 2026. The outcome will be settled against aemet.es. For now, the crowd puts YES at 30%, based on 7 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the current forecast, with warnings only at yellow for wind, it’s unlikely we’ll see any naranja or rojo alerts on the 14th. No chance of those higher warnings.

78%
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87%
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30%
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74%
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55%
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68%
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