Will Sophie Adenot return to Earth inside a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule?

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YES if AEMET's archived warnings for September 8, 2026 record at least one area in Spain with an orange or red aviso for temperatures/heat at any time on that date (Spain local time, UTC+02:00). Only warnings that explicitly reference temperatures or heat count. For combined/multi-phenomenon warnings, it counts only if AEMET assigns orange or red specifically to the temperatures/heat phenomenon. According to AEMET.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 7, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 9, 2026. The outcome will be settled against aemet.es. For now, the crowd puts YES at 76%, based on 15 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith AEMET forecasting orange warnings for several regions due to extreme heat tomorrow, it's safe to say we'll see at least one area in Spain under alert. Count on it.

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