🚀Science·SpaceCloses Sep 9
Will the Soyuz 2.1b carrying Progress MS‑35 lift off from Baikonur Site 31/6 on September 9?
27%
-8% last 24h
1174 bets · 37.9K credits3
Details →
ScienceOpened Jul 26 · Results Jul 27
Will any Andalusian province be under a red-level ("aviso rojo", extreme risk) heat warning at 2:00 PM CEST on July 27, 2026?
38%
Stable · last 24h
📊 15 bettors💎 306 at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Jul 27🤖 Context
YES if, on the Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) official "Avisos por provincias" page, at least one Andalusian province (Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga or Sevilla) is shown with a red-level ("aviso rojo", extreme risk) heat warning that is in effect at 2:00 PM CEST on July 27, 2026. Otherwise NO. If AEMET has replaced or renamed its levels so that "rojo" no longer exists, the market resolves YES if AEMET's official warnings page explicitly shows any Andalusian province under the agency's highest-severity or extreme heat warning covering that time.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No38%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 62% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: On 27 July 2026, AEMET Andalucía stated at 11:12 CEST that the maximum warning level in Andalusia was orange, implying no red warnings that day. Independent day-of reports list only yellow heat warnings in Andalusian provinces (e.g., Sevilla, Córdoba, Huelva) with validity through the afternoon/evening; none report any red-level heat warnings in Andalusia. Therefore, at 14:00 CEST no Andalusian province was under a red heat warning.
Source: x.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 38%
- Predictions made
- 15
- Credits staked
- 306
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Jul 26, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 27, 2026
- Resolved
- Jul 31, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- x.com, rtve.es, regatistas-virtuales.net
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet No· 35 💎
oh, you bet one of those provinces will be sizzling red! it's like a sauna out there by then. 🌞
Related predictions
See all →🚀Science·SpaceCloses Sep 13
Will a SpaceX Falcon 9 carrying the final three O3b mPOWER satellites for SES lift off from SLC‑40, Cape Canaveral on September 13?
69%
Stable · last 24h
69 bets · 2.1K credits1
Details →🚀Science·SpaceCloses Sep 30 · Results Oct 1
Will Sophie Adenot return to Earth by splashdown or runway landing?
68%
Stable · last 24h
76 bets · 2.5K credits1
Details →🌋Science·GeologyCloses Sep 10 · Results Sep 13
Will an earthquake of magnitude 5.3 or greater occur in Alaska?
21%
Stable · last 24h
111 bets · 3.5K credits1
Details →🌦️Science·WeatherCloses Sep 10
Will Lowell stop being a hurricane (tropical storm or weaker)?
55%
Stable · last 24h
2 bets · 10 credits1
Details →🚀Science·SpaceCloses Sep 30 · Results Oct 1
Will Sophie Adenot do a fourth spacewalk?
31%
-27% last 24h
382 bets · 8.9K credits1
Details →