Will Gemini reach 1 billion users before August 31, 2026?

90%
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32%
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YES if Google publicly announces no later than September 30, 2026 that its Android "developer verification" program is active and being enforced in all four countries: Brazil, Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand. The announcement must appear on Google's official channels, such as the Android Developers Blog, Google Newsroom, Google Play Console documentation, or an official Google support page. Partial rollouts, statements that only say "planned" or "coming soon", or announcements covering only some of the four countries do not count.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 30, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against 9to5google.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 32%, based on 9 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledI doubt Google will manage to make a comprehensive announcement by late September. They often take their time with such major implementations and this timeframe is tight.

90%
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36%
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43%
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47%
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31%
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92%
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