Will an integrated Starship and Super Heavy liftoff from Starbase Pad 2 for an orbital launch attempt?

🤖 Context

Resolves YES if SpaceX conducts a liftoff of an integrated Starship–Super Heavy stacked vehicle that clears Starbase Pad 2 with engines ignited, using Ship 41 and Booster 21. The liftoff must be an orbital launch attempt and must occur no later than September 30, 2026. Resolution is based on reports from SpaceX and/or multiple independent news organizations (for example Spaceflight Now, Reuters, or the Associated Press). Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 15, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against spaceflightnow.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 65%, based on 10 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

65%

Predictions made

10

Credits staked

270

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 5, 2026

Closes

Sep 15, 2026

Expected resolution

Oct 1, 2026

Resolution source

spaceflightnow.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 15, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 65% and NO 35%, based on 10 predictions and 270 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against spaceflightnow.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will an integrated Starship and Super Heavy liftoff from Starbase Pad 2 for an orbital launch attempt?” real-money betting?

No. “Will an integrated Starship and Super Heavy liftoff from Starbase Pad 2 for an orbital launch attempt?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.