Will an earthquake of magnitude 6.1 or greater hit Indonesia?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one earthquake with a reported magnitude of 6.1 or greater whose origin time is on or after 00:00 UTC on August 26, 2026 and no later than 00:00 UTC on August 29, 2026, and whose USGS‑reported epicenter lies within Indonesia. Otherwise NO. The USGS earthquake catalog is the resolution source.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 26, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 29, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 23%, based on 65 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

23%

Predictions made

65

Credits staked

1,474

Comments

0

Opened

Aug 25, 2026

Closes

Aug 26, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 29, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 26, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 29, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 23% and NO 77%, based on 65 predictions and 1.5K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will an earthquake of magnitude 6.1 or greater hit Indonesia?” real-money betting?

No. “Will an earthquake of magnitude 6.1 or greater hit Indonesia?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.