Will an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or greater occur in Indonesia?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS earthquake catalog records at least one earthquake with a reported magnitude of at least 5.5 occurring at or after 00:00 UTC on September 13, 2026 and no later than 00:00 UTC on September 16, 2026, and whose epicenter the USGS assigns to Indonesia (either because the USGS location text names Indonesia or because the epicenter coordinates fall within Indonesia's land or territorial waters). The magnitude used is the value shown in the USGS catalog at resolution. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 13, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 16, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 24%, based on 136 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

24%

Predictions made

136

Credits staked

4,573

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 12, 2026

Closes

Sep 13, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 16, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 13, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 16, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 24% and NO 76%, based on 136 predictions and 4.6K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or greater occur in Indonesia?” real-money betting?

No. “Will an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or greater occur in Indonesia?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.