Will an earthquake of magnitude 5.3 or greater occur in Alaska?

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) earthquake catalog records at least one event the USGS classifies as an earthquake (not an explosion or quarry blast) with a USGS-reported magnitude of at least 5.3, with an origin time on or after 00:00 UTC on September 10, 2026 and no later than 00:00 UTC on September 13, 2026, and with the recorded epicenter located within Alaska (USA). Otherwise NO. The U.S. Geological Survey is the preferred source, though equivalent reporting by other reputable seismological agencies or major news outlets confirming an earthquake that meets these criteria is also admissible.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 10, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 13, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 29%, based on 55 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

29%

Predictions made

55

Credits staked

1,706

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 9, 2026

Closes

Sep 10, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 13, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 10, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 13, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 29% and NO 71%, based on 55 predictions and 1.7K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will an earthquake of magnitude 5.3 or greater occur in Alaska?” real-money betting?

No. “Will an earthquake of magnitude 5.3 or greater occur in Alaska?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.