ScienceResults Jul 20

Will an earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or greater occur in the Alaska region before July 21, 2026?

47%

Stable · last 24h

📊 2 bettors💎 15 at stake

ResolvedNo

Resolved: No

Results Jul 20

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey earthquake catalog lists one or more events with reported magnitude greater than or equal to 5.0 whose origin time is on or after 00:00 UTC on July 18, 2026 and strictly before 00:00 UTC on July 21, 2026, and whose epicenter lies inside the box bounded by latitudes 51 to 72 and longitudes -170 to -130, according to the USGS catalog. Otherwise NO. If the USGS event service is unavailable at resolution time, the market will be resolved once the USGS catalog is reachable and the authoritative event list for that interval can be obtained.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

47%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 53% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: Extracted condition: the USGS catalog must list one or more events with reported magnitude >= 5.0 whose origin time is >= 2026-07-18T00:00:00+00:00 and < 2026-07-21T00:00:00+00:00, and whose epicenter lies inside latitudes 51 to 72 and longitudes -170 to -130. Target window: 2026-07-18T00:00:00+00:00 (inclusive) through 2026-07-21T00:00:00+00:00 (exclusive). Observed value: the supplied USGS query (starttime=2026-07-18T00:00:00+00:00, endtime=2026-07-21T00:00:00+00:00, minmagnitude=5, minlatitude=51, maxlatitude=72, minlongitude=-170, maxlongitude=-130) returned 0 matching earthquake(s) ("no matching earthquakes"). Comparison: 0 events < 1 required, so the condition is not satisfied. Outcome: NO.

Source: earthquake.usgs.gov