
Will an earthquake of magnitude 4.8 or greater occur in Peru before July 21, 2026?
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YES if the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) earthquake catalog lists one or more events with reported magnitude at least 4.8 whose origin time is on or after 00:00 UTC on July 18, 2026 and strictly before 00:00 UTC on July 21, 2026, and whose epicenter lies inside latitude -18 to 0 and longitude -82 to -68, according to the USGS catalog. Otherwise NO. If the USGS event service is unavailable at resolution time, the market will wait and be resolved once the USGS catalog is reachable and the authoritative event list for that interval can be obtained.
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