ScienceResults Jul 20

Will an earthquake of magnitude 4.8 or greater occur in Peru before July 21, 2026?

50%

Stable · last 24h

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ResolvedYes

Resolved: Yes

Results Jul 20

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) earthquake catalog lists one or more events with reported magnitude at least 4.8 whose origin time is on or after 00:00 UTC on July 18, 2026 and strictly before 00:00 UTC on July 21, 2026, and whose epicenter lies inside latitude -18 to 0 and longitude -82 to -68, according to the USGS catalog. Otherwise NO. If the USGS event service is unavailable at resolution time, the market will wait and be resolved once the USGS catalog is reachable and the authoritative event list for that interval can be obtained.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

Yes

50%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 50% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: Extracted condition: USGS event catalog must list >=1 event with reported magnitude >= 4.8, origin time >= 2026-07-18T00:00:00+00:00 and < 2026-07-21T00:00:00+00:00, and epicenter within latitude -18 to 0 and longitude -82 to -68. Observed value(s): Market's USGS query returned 1 matching earthquake: 2026-07-19 02:24 UTC, M5.5, lat -12.0429, lon -75.3013. Comparison: magnitude 5.5 >= 4.8; origin time 2026-07-19T02:24:00Z is within the required [2026-07-18T00:00:00Z, 2026-07-21T00:00:00Z) window; coordinates satisfy -18 <= -12.0429 <= 0 and -82 <= -75.3013 <= -68. Therefore the market resolves YES.

Source: earthquake.usgs.gov