Will an earthquake of magnitude 4.6 or greater hit Japan?

🤖 Context

YES if at least one earthquake with a reported magnitude of at least 4.6 has its epicenter in Japan on or after 00:00 on August 23, 2026 and no later than 00:00 on August 26, 2026. The market uses the magnitude value reported in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) earthquake catalog at resolution time. Corroborating confirmation from Japan’s national seismic authority or major international news outlets is also acceptable.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 23, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 26, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 34%, based on 49 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

34%

Predictions made

49

Credits staked

1,257

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 22, 2026

Closes

Aug 23, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 26, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 23, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 26, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 34% and NO 66%, based on 49 predictions and 1.3K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will an earthquake of magnitude 4.6 or greater hit Japan?” real-money betting?

No. “Will an earthquake of magnitude 4.6 or greater hit Japan?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.