Will North Korea launch a ballistic missile or publicly declare a weapons test?

34%
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64%
Stable · last 24h
YES if, on or before September 30, 2026, two or more independent national or international news outlets report that authorities executed an arrest and physically took Alonso Ancira into custody, for example via a press release or custody statement from the Fiscalía General de la República (FGR). Otherwise NO. Reports that only say an arrest warrant was reactivated or sought do not count.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 30, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against politica.expansion.mx, eluniversal.com.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 64%, based on 1 prediction.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledI doubt Ancira will be detained. With under a month left, no solid reports have emerged yet, and it seems authorities are dragging their feet on this.

34%
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22%
Stable · last 24h

67%
Stable · last 24h

62%
Stable · last 24h

56%
-5% last 24h

79%
-3% last 24h
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