Will the U.S. and Iran publicly say they've concluded a bilateral agreement on managing the Strait of Hormuz?

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64%
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YES if, no later than 12:00 on August 20, 2026, two or more independent reputable news outlets report that the Ayuntamiento de Málaga or the competent Andalusian health or public‑safety authority has formally announced that bathing is permitted (the red‑flag/closure has been removed) at each of the six beaches: Campo de Golf‑San Julián, Guadalmar, La Misericordia, Sacaba, San Andrés and El Palo. Preferably this will be an official announcement by the Ayuntamiento de Málaga. Partial reopenings count as NO, and reports that only say samples are being analysed, that water quality is improving, or that authorities are reviewing the situation without a formal lift also count as NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 19, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 20, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 64%, based on 10 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith only a few days left and no formal announcements yet, the chances seem slim. It’s unlikely that all six beaches will reopen by the deadline.

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32%
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57%
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73%
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59%
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67%
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