Will Sophie Adenot return to Earth inside a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule?

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Resolved: No
Results Jul 25YES if the Préfecture de la Gironde official website publishes on or before 12:00 PM on July 25, 2026 an official communiqué explicitly stating that there are no mandatory evacuation orders in effect for any commune because of the wildfires affecting Lège‑Cap‑Ferret, Bassin d'Arcachon, or Biscarrosse. If the Préfecture de la Gironde site is technically inaccessible for automated verification at resolution time, the market resolves YES if the French Ministry of the Interior or the national Sécurité Civile crisis page on gouvernement.fr publishes an equivalent official communiqué by the deadline. Otherwise the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settled9%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 91% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple supplied news sources dated 23–24 July 2026 report that the Préfecture de la Gironde issued/was quoted as issuing mandatory evacuation orders for areas including Lège‑Cap‑Ferret / the Arcachon basin and Biscarrosse. Notably, the Arab News item (AFP) of 24 July 2026 states “la préfecture de la Gironde a ordonné ... l'évacuation de plusieurs villages ... précisant dans un communiqué ...”, and Reuters and RFI (23–24 July) likewise report thousands evacuated in Gironde because of the fires. These pieces constitute positive evidence that the Préfecture published communiqués ordering evacuations (contrary to a communiqué asserting there are no mandatory evacuation orders). No supplied source shows an official communiqué from the Préfecture, the Interior Ministry, or gouvernement.fr asserting that there were no mandatory evacuation orders in effect by the deadline, while several supplied sources explicitly report mandatory evacuations. Therefore the answer is NO.
Source: arabnews.frSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settlednot a chance this gets lifted by then. these fires are relentless, and so is the red tape. 🙄

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