Will Mercedes be first in the constructors' standings after the Dutch GP on August 23?

94%
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70%
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YES if on or before August 15, 2026, Real Sociedad or the player's current club issues an official statement saying Aguerd has signed with Real Sociedad under a completed contract (permanent transfer or loan), or if LaLiga lists Aguerd as registered to Real Sociedad. Statements described only as 'agreement in principle', 'in negotiations', or similar do not count. If an official club statement and the league registration conflict, the league registration takes precedence.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 14, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 15, 2026. The outcome will be settled against marca.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 70%, based on 11 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledI expect Aguerd to join Real Sociedad officially before tomorrow's deadline. With 39 hours left, a confirmation seems likely given the close timing to this resolution.

94%
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40%
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88%
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41%
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40%
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38%
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