Will Russian and Ukrainian forces start a temporary ceasefire in Oleshky that allows aid deliveries or organized evacuations?

73%
+1% last 24h

48%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: No
Results Sep 11YES if, no later than September 10, 2026, two or more independent authoritative news outlets report that a U.S. federal agency publicly acknowledged, in an agency statement, press release, sworn court filing, congressional testimony, or equivalent public record, that federal agents entered Tohono O'odham Nation land in the incident described in the San Diego Union-Tribune article 'Tohono O'odham Nation says federal agents trespassed. What rights does it have to stop them?'. 'Publicly acknowledged' requires an explicit admission of entry; statements that only say an investigation is ongoing, that there is 'no evidence', or that decline to admit entry do not count. Preferred authoritative pointers include statements or filings from the Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, or the Department of Justice.
How markets are built and settled48%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 52% sure, and they nailed it.
I doubt we'll see a formal admission from any federal agency. With only two weeks left, reports suggest they're more likely to keep silent than acknowledge trespassing.

73%
+1% last 24h

74%
Stable · last 24h

94%
Stable · last 24h

95%
+1% last 24h

40%
Stable · last 24h

65%
Stable · last 24h
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