Will Amazon Leo have 400 or more satellites in orbit by Aug 31, 2026?

77%
Stable · last 24h

8%
Stable · last 24h
YES if a freely accessible report published by a reputable French news organisation or by an official meteorological or civil authority explicitly states that a tornado (using the words 'tornade', 'tuba', 'trombe' or 'tornado') occurred and was confirmed within the administrative boundaries of Corsica (Haute‑Corse or Corse‑du‑Sud), Alpes‑Maritimes, or Var during August 22, 2026, between 00:00 and 23:59:59 (UTC+2). Examples of reputable sources include Météo‑France, TF1 Info, and AFP. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 21, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 23, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tf1info.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 8%, based on 55 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven today's date, it's unlikely we'll get a confirmation before tomorrow. Tornados in August here are rare, and no credible sources have reported one yet.

77%
Stable · last 24h

61%
Stable · last 24h

83%
Stable · last 24h

52%
Stable · last 24h

25%
Stable · last 24h

63%
-8% last 24h
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