Will Amazon Leo have 400 or more satellites in orbit by Aug 31, 2026?

65%
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23%
Stable · last 24h
YES if, for at least one event with a named French location (department or commune) whose local date/time falls between 00:00 on 28 August 2026 and 23:59:59 on 30 August 2026 Central European Summer Time (CEST) inclusive, one of the following publishes an explicit statement that a tornado occurred: Météo‑France (post‑event bulletin or observation page), the relevant departmental préfecture, or an official emergency services agency (SDIS). YES is also valid if at least two independent major French news organisations publish unambiguous reports stating "tornade" or "phénomène tourbillonnaire" for that named location and local date/time. Reports consisting only of unverified social media posts or single witness videos without follow‑up by those official or major media sources do not count. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 27, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 31, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tf1info.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 23%, based on 77 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledNo chance of a tornado being officially reported in France this weekend. Current weather conditions don't support it, and there's no indication from Météo-France that anything's brewing.

65%
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69%
Stable · last 24h

34%
Stable · last 24h

57%
Stable · last 24h

28%
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51%
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