Will Israel and Hamas publicly agree to a ceasefire with a stated start time?

10%
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80%
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YES if no later than September 7, 2026 the Assemblée nationale's conférence des présidents formally decides, by vote or by an official published decision recorded in conference minutes or parliamentary documents, to establish a 'commission spéciale' whose mandate explicitly includes preparing the examination of the bill named here. Otherwise NO. Authoritative sources are the conférence des présidents minutes or the Assemblée nationale's official list of commissions, and reporting of the conference decision by two or more independent French news organisations is also sufficient.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 7, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 7, 2026. The outcome will be settled against lcp.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 80%, based on 52 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the timeline, it's unlikely the assembly will create a special commission in time. With just two weeks left, and no concrete moves reported yet, I’d bet against it.

10%
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65%
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55%
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37%
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24%
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29%
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