Will the US publicly say it carried out a strike inside Iran or on Iranian government facilities by 12:00 PM on August 16, 2026 (Eastern US time)?

31%
-2% last 24h

30%
Stable · last 24h
YES if a meeting described as the Spanish Government's commission on reallocation of minors from Ceuta is publicly held on August 13, 2026, and this is confirmed that day by either an official Spanish Government press release or a published attendee list, or by mainstream Spanish news reporting (for example La Moncloa, EFE, RTVE) that names at least one participating autonomous community government representative. NO otherwise, or if the Government issues a public notice before August 13, 2026 explicitly cancelling or postponing the meeting to a different calendar date.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 13, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 13, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 30%, based on 11 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledI doubt this meeting will happen. With just two days left and no major news confirming it, the odds are slim. Expect a cancellation notice soon.

31%
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31%
Stable · last 24h

72%
+6% last 24h

19%
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42%
Stable · last 24h

20%
-1% last 24h
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