Will a new 'Aviso Especial' be posted for Popocatépetl?

🤖 Context

YES if Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (CONAGUA/SMN) posts on its official advisories page a bulletin explicitly titled "Aviso Especial por la actividad del Volcán Popocatépetl" that shows an "Emisión" timestamp later than 09:00 on August 21, 2026 and is posted no later than 14:00 on August 21, 2026. Otherwise NO. CENAPRED bulletins or widely reported national news outlets may be used as secondary confirmation.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 21, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 21, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 53%, based on 3 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

53%

Predictions made

3

Credits staked

25

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 21, 2026

Closes

Aug 21, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 21, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 21, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 21, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 53% and NO 47%, based on 3 predictions and 25 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will a new 'Aviso Especial' be posted for Popocatépetl?” real-money betting?

No. “Will a new 'Aviso Especial' be posted for Popocatépetl?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.