Will a magnitude 6.3+ earthquake occur in Indonesia?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one earthquake with a numeric magnitude of at least 6.3 that occurred in Indonesia on or after August 22, 2026 and no later than 00:00 on August 25, 2026. The USGS catalog is the preferred source. If the USGS is temporarily unavailable, confirmation from a national seismic agency or from multiple independent major news outlets will be accepted.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 22, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 25, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 22%, based on 69 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

22%

Predictions made

69

Credits staked

2,417

Comments

0

Opened

Aug 21, 2026

Closes

Aug 22, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 25, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 22, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 25, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 22% and NO 78%, based on 69 predictions and 2.4K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will a magnitude 6.3+ earthquake occur in Indonesia?” real-money betting?

No. “Will a magnitude 6.3+ earthquake occur in Indonesia?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.