Will a magnitude 5.8 or greater earthquake occur in Indonesia?

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) earthquake catalog or other public seismological catalogs list at least one earthquake with a catalog magnitude of 5.8 or greater whose origin time is at or after 00:00 on August 11, 2026 and strictly before 00:00 on August 14, 2026, and whose epicenter is in Indonesia. The final magnitude and location recorded in public seismological catalogs at the resolution date are controlling. If the listed earthquake is removed from the catalog or its final magnitude is revised below 5.8 by the resolution date, the market resolves NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 11, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 14, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 15%, based on 116 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

15%

Predictions made

116

Credits staked

3,055

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 10, 2026

Closes

Aug 11, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 14, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 11, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 14, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 15% and NO 85%, based on 116 predictions and 3.1K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will a magnitude 5.8 or greater earthquake occur in Indonesia?” real-money betting?

No. “Will a magnitude 5.8 or greater earthquake occur in Indonesia?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.