Will a magnitude 5.6 or greater earthquake occur in Indonesia?

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) earthquake catalog or other authoritative seismological reporting shows at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.6 or greater occurred in Indonesia with an origin time on or after 00:00 UTC on September 2, 2026 and no later than 00:00 UTC on September 5, 2026. Prefer the USGS catalog when available and use the magnitude value reported by the USGS on its event page when multiple estimates exist. Events reported exactly as 5.6 count. If authoritative catalogs disagree about country attribution, follow the USGS attribution when available. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 2, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 5, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 23%, based on 95 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

23%

Predictions made

95

Credits staked

2,984

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 1, 2026

Closes

Sep 2, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 5, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 2, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 5, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 23% and NO 77%, based on 95 predictions and 3K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will a magnitude 5.6 or greater earthquake occur in Indonesia?” real-money betting?

No. “Will a magnitude 5.6 or greater earthquake occur in Indonesia?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.