Will a magnitude 5.6 or greater earthquake hit Indonesia?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) earthquake catalog lists at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.6 or greater in Indonesia with origin time at or after 00:00 UTC on August 14, 2026 and before 00:00 UTC on August 17, 2026. Events with origin time exactly 00:00 UTC on August 14, 2026 count, and events exactly 00:00 UTC on August 17, 2026 do not. Duplicate listings of the same seismic event count only once.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 14, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 17, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 23%, based on 67 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

23%

Predictions made

67

Credits staked

1,725

Comments

0

Opened

Aug 13, 2026

Closes

Aug 14, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 17, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 14, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 17, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 23% and NO 77%, based on 67 predictions and 1.7K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will a magnitude 5.6 or greater earthquake hit Indonesia?” real-money betting?

No. “Will a magnitude 5.6 or greater earthquake hit Indonesia?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.