🌋Science·GeologyCloses Sep 12 · Results Sep 15
Will an earthquake of magnitude 5.4 or greater occur in Indonesia?
28%
Stable · last 24h
222 bets · 6.7K credits1
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ScienceOpened Jul 28 · Results Aug 1
Will a magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquake strike Indonesia before August 1, 2026?
20%
Stable · last 24h
📊 527 bettors💎 14K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Aug 1🤖 Context
YES if the U.S. Geological Survey earthquake catalog lists one or more earthquakes with a USGS‑reported magnitude of at least 5.5, with event time on or after July 29, 2026 00:00 UTC and before August 1, 2026 00:00 UTC, and with epicenter inside the market's specified bounding box in Indonesia. Events with time exactly at the start or with epicenter exactly on the bounding‑box edge count as inside, events exactly at August 1, 2026 00:00 UTC do not. The market resolves according to the U.S. Geological Survey earthquake catalog. If the USGS catalog is temporarily unreachable at resolution time, the resolver will wait and apply the same rule once it is reachable.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No20%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 80% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: the USGS catalog (exact query URL) must list >=1 earthquake with USGS 'mag' >= 5.5, event time >= 2026-07-29T00:00:00+00:00 and < 2026-08-01T00:00:00+00:00, and epicenter within bounding box minlatitude=-11, maxlatitude=6, minlongitude=95, maxlongitude=141 (start and bbox edges inclusive; end time exclusive). Observed value: the exact query returned '0 matching earthquake(s)' (no matching earthquakes). Comparison: 0 matches < 1 required, so the condition was not met. The USGS catalog returned a result (was reachable) and the resolution window has passed, so the market resolves NO.
Source: earthquake.usgs.govKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 20%
- Predictions made
- 527
- Credits staked
- 14,004
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Jul 28, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 29, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 1, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- earthquake.usgs.gov
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠
yeah, it's only a matter of time! indonesia is basically a seismic hot spot. 🌍
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