Will a magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquake occur in Indonesia?

🤖 Context

YES if at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or greater is recorded in Indonesia on or after 00:00 UTC on September 8, 2026 and no later than 00:00 UTC on September 11, 2026, preferably according to the USGS earthquake catalog. Corroborating records from other authoritative seismological agencies' public catalogs or multiple independent reputable news outlets are also acceptable. The magnitude used is the value listed in the authoritative catalog at resolution time. Magnitude revisions posted before resolution count, and events later reclassified as not earthquakes do not count.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 8, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 11, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 27%, based on 73 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

27%

Predictions made

73

Credits staked

2,419

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 7, 2026

Closes

Sep 8, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 11, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 8, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 11, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 27% and NO 73%, based on 73 predictions and 2.4K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will a magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquake occur in Indonesia?” real-money betting?

No. “Will a magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquake occur in Indonesia?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.