Will a magnitude 5.1 or greater earthquake occur in Japan?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS earthquake catalog, or if the USGS is temporarily unavailable other national seismological agency catalogs or multiple independent major news outlets, list at least one earthquake with recorded magnitude ≥ 5.1 located within Japan whose origin time is on or after 00:00 UTC on August 12, 2026 and no later than 00:00 UTC on August 15, 2026. An event later removed from the authoritative catalog as a duplicate or withdrawn error does not count. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 12, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 15, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 24%, based on 130 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

24%

Predictions made

130

Credits staked

3,082

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 11, 2026

Closes

Aug 12, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 15, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 12, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 15, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 24% and NO 76%, based on 130 predictions and 3.1K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will a magnitude 5.1 or greater earthquake occur in Japan?” real-money betting?

No. “Will a magnitude 5.1 or greater earthquake occur in Japan?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.