Will a magnitude 4.9 or greater earthquake strike Japan?

🤖 Context

Resolves YES if the U.S. Geological Survey earthquake catalog lists one or more earthquakes with a reported magnitude of 4.9 or greater that occurred in Japan at or after 00:00 on August 15, 2026 and no later than 00:00 on August 18, 2026 UTC. Resolves NO otherwise. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) earthquake catalog is the source.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 15, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 18, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 16%, based on 68 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

16%

Predictions made

68

Credits staked

1,842

Comments

0

Opened

Aug 14, 2026

Closes

Aug 15, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 18, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 15, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 18, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 16% and NO 84%, based on 68 predictions and 1.8K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will a magnitude 4.9 or greater earthquake strike Japan?” real-money betting?

No. “Will a magnitude 4.9 or greater earthquake strike Japan?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.