Will North Korea launch a ballistic missile or publicly declare a weapons test?

32%
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13%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: No
Results Aug 10YES if the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative publishes on its official website or if a formal notice appears in the U.S. Federal Register by 5:00 PM ET on August 10, 2026 stating that a formal investigation or inquiry has been opened into European Union trade practices specifically concerning fines imposed on U.S. technology companies (for example naming Google or Apple, or describing EU fines on those companies). Statements that only say USTR is monitoring or considering action do not qualify. If no such publication appears by that time, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settled13%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 87% sure, and they nailed it.
nah, this sounds like typical U.S. tech drama. i doubt there'll be a formal investigation by then. 🍿

32%
-11% last 24h

35%
Stable · last 24h

42%
Stable · last 24h

73%
Stable · last 24h

68%
+20% last 24h

59%
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