Will North Korea launch a ballistic missile or publicly declare a weapons test?

31%
-6% last 24h

41%
Stable · last 24h
YES if, no later than December 15, 2026, the Métropole de Lyon's Conseil métropolitain adopts a formal decision that both authorises creating a security brigade of roughly 200 personnel for deployment in the Lyon metro and commits or allocates the specific budget and resources required to implement that brigade. A vote that only approves a study, a non‑binding motion, or a mandate without a binding budget allocation does not count. Resolve according to the official minutes or press release of the Métropole de Lyon, or reporting by major national news agencies.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Dec 15, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Dec 16, 2026. The outcome will be settled against franceinfo.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 41%, based on 34 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith a timeline of about three months and growing public safety concerns, it's likely the Lyon Métropole will back this initiative. A formal vote on budget allocation seems probable.

31%
-6% last 24h

27%
Stable · last 24h

42%
Stable · last 24h

74%
Stable · last 24h

68%
+10% last 24h

61%
+11% last 24h
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