Will 1,000 or more people irregularly enter Ceuta and/or Melilla on August 15?

🤖 Context

YES if Spanish or Moroccan authorities report a combined total of 1,000 or more people irregularly entering, being recorded as arrivals in, or being registered as present in Ceuta and/or Melilla during the local calendar date August 15, 2026. Preferred sources are a Spanish Government body (Ministerio del Interior or Delegación del Gobierno), a Spanish security force (Policía Nacional or Guardia Civil), or the Moroccan Interior Ministry. If Spanish agencies publish conflicting totals, the figure from a Spanish Government body will be used, and if no Spanish authority publishes a number, two independent major national outlets reporting the same government-sourced figure will be accepted.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 14, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 16, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 53%, based on 8 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

53%

Predictions made

8

Credits staked

220

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 12, 2026

Closes

Aug 14, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 16, 2026

Resolution source

efe.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 14, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 16, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 53% and NO 47%, based on 8 predictions and 220 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against efe.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will 1,000 or more people irregularly enter Ceuta and/or Melilla on August 15?” real-money betting?

No. “Will 1,000 or more people irregularly enter Ceuta and/or Melilla on August 15?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.