Was Sophie Adenot's return from the ISS postponed because of a Crew Dragon leak?

🤖 Context

YES if, no later than September 10, 2026, NASA or SpaceX issues an official public statement that explicitly says a Crew Dragon leak was a reason for postponing Sophie Adenot's return from the ISS. Acceptable forms include a NASA or SpaceX press release, a mission-status update, or an on-the-record agency statement widely quoted by major wire services. A mere mention of a "leak" without linking it to the postponement is insufficient, otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 6, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 11, 2026. The outcome will be settled against numerama.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 58%, based on 12 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

58%

Predictions made

12

Credits staked

635

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 3, 2026

Closes

Sep 6, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 11, 2026

Resolution source

numerama.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 6, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 11, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 58% and NO 42%, based on 12 predictions and 635 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against numerama.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Was Sophie Adenot's return from the ISS postponed because of a Crew Dragon leak?” real-money betting?

No. “Was Sophie Adenot's return from the ISS postponed because of a Crew Dragon leak?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.