Worlds: Will Team Liquid Alienware win their Swiss-stage best-of-3 vs LOS?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 1The market required that at least one Telecinco-broadcast episode of Supervivientes All Stars 3 airing in Spain between 14 September 2026 and 30 September 2026 inclusive contains a 'Duelo de capitanes' and that program synopses or post-broadcast recaps report Rubén Torres as the winner. The second gala, broadcast by Telecinco on 17 September 2026, included a captains' face-off and multiple post-broadcast recaps and independent coverage report that Rubén Torres won that duel and then granted immunity while Marta was forced to nominate. Because a Telecinco episode within the 14–30 September 2026 window featured a 'Duelo de capitanes' won by Rubén Torres, the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settled29%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 71% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: The show’s weekly captains’ face-off occurred within the target window, and a credible recap specifies that the second gala broadcast on 17 September 2026 included a captains’ game won by Rubén Torres. An additional independent outlet describes the same gala’s consequences (Torres granting immunity; Marta forced to nominate), consistent with Torres having won that ‘duelo/juego de capitanes’. This satisfies the condition that at least one episode aired in Spain between 14–30 September 2026 included a Duelo de capitanes won by Rubén Torres.
Source: eldiario.esSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledWith only about 18 days left in the window, there's ample time for at least one 'Duelo de capitanes' to occur. I see Rubén taking at least one of those duels as a strong possibility.

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