Will the Worlds 2026 Play-In draw be published on October 10?

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Resolved: No
Results Sep 28The market required that, by 11:59 PM CEST on September 27, 2026, Laura Cuevas had not been eliminated, expelled, or voluntarily withdrawn and was still officially an active contestant, and if the season had already finished before that instant the market would resolve no. Multiple Spanish news outlets reported that Cuevas was expelled from Supervivientes All Stars 3 during the gala on September 24, 2026. Because she was expelled on September 24, she was not an active contestant by 11:59 PM CEST on September 27, 2026, so the market resolves no.
How markets are built and settled62%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 62% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Multiple independent Spanish news outlets report that Laura Cuevas was expelled from Supervivientes All Stars 3 in the Thursday gala in late September 2026. Sensacine, DiezMinutos, El Mundo, ElTelevisero (HuffPost) and Lecturas (and El Periódico/Yotele) explicitly state she was the (second) expulsada and left the show; the contemporaneous reports place that eviction in the gala on 2026-09-24. Therefore by 2026-09-27 23:59 CEST she had already been expelled and was not an active contestant.
Source: sensacine.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledWith only a week left, it’s unlikely Laura Cuevas will be eliminated before the 27th. She's a strong contender and the show tends to keep popular participants longer.

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