Worlds: Will Karmine Corp win the Swiss best-of-3 series against CTBC Flying Oyster?

85%
Stable · last 24h

67%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: No
Results Sep 11To count as yes, Telecinco's broadcast of the Supervivientes All Stars 3 premiere on 10 September 2026 (Spain local time) had to explicitly show or state that at least one of these contestants — Albert Barranco, Alma Bollo, Arkano, Asraf Beno, Chiqui, Damián Quintero, Ivana Icardi, Lola Ortiz, María Jesús Ruiz, Omar Sánchez, Rosa Benito, Víctor Janeiro, Yola Berrocal, or Yulen Pereira — did not perform the traditional helicopter jump by refusing, being medically exempt, or being prevented from jumping. Post-broadcast coverage from Diezminutos, Lecturas, ElDiario.es and El Confidencial reports that all 14 named contestants performed their helicopter jumps in the 10 September 2026 premiere, with accounts noting that Rosa Benito hesitated but ultimately jumped. Because none of the supplied reports or the broadcast say any of the listed contestants refused, were medically exempt, or were prevented from jumping, the condition for yes is not met, so the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settled67%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 67% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Multiple independent, post-broadcast reports in the supplied evidence describe the 14 contestants (the named list) performing the traditional helicopter jumps in the Supervivientes All Stars 3 premiere on 10 Sept 2026. Diezminutos gives per-contestant accounts (e.g. “Víctor Janeiro… se ha lanzado”, “Arkano… se ha lanzado”, “Albert Barranco… se ha lanzado”, etc.). Lecturas published a piece titled “Así han sido todos los saltos…” with individual descriptions for each contestant (noting, for example, that Rosa Benito hesitated but ultimately jumped). ElDiario.es’s post-show recap explicitly states the 14 contestants “volvían a saltar del helicóptero” in the premiere, and El Confidencial’s live updates show the programme proceeding to vote for the best jump. Nowhere in the supplied pages is there credible reporting that any of the listed contestants refused, were medically exempt, or were prevented from jumping in that premiere. Therefore the answer to whether at least one of them did not perform the jump is NO.
Source: diezminutos.esSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the show's history, it's very likely at least one contestant won't jump due to medical reasons or refusal. Expect some drama around it, so I'm calling this a YES.

85%
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96%
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61%
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52%
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47%
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79%
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