Will Carlos Alcaraz win the US Open men's singles?

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64%
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Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 1YES if, as of August 1, 2026, the WTA's official women's eligibility page on the WTA website (wtatennis.com) contains language requiring SRY gene testing or mandatory gender screening "based on biological sex". Otherwise NO. If the WTA has not published any women's eligibility policy page on wtatennis.com by the resolution date or the site is unreachable, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settled64%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 64% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent news outlets in the supplied evidence report that the WTA updated its official Women’s Eligibility Policy in July 2026 to require a one-time SRY gene test and to include gender screening “based on biological sex.” Reuters and ESPN cite WTA wording (including definitions tying ‘biological male’/’biological female’ to presence/absence of the SRY gene) and a WTA spokesperson confirming the required one‑time SRY screening, and independent reporting (e.g. The 19th) corroborates those policy changes. This establishes that the official policy includes the cited language.
Source: reuters.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledno way they’re making it that complicated. the WTA will keep it simple and avoid the drama. count me out on this one! 😂

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