Will North Korea launch a ballistic missile or publicly declare a weapons test?

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57%
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YES if, no later than 12:00 AM Eastern Time on September 23, 2026, the most recent publicly released Arizona Governor poll that reports two-way percentages for Katie Hobbs and Andy Biggs shows Katie Hobbs with a strictly higher published percentage than Andy Biggs. Otherwise NO. Prefer VoteHub's Arizona Governor poll listing as the primary source, but the applicable poll may also be confirmed from the pollster's published release or mainstream news reproducing the two-way Hobbs vs Biggs percentages. If the most recent poll listed on VoteHub does not include both named candidates, ignore that poll and use the next-most-recent publicly released Arizona Governor poll that does include both. If no publicly released poll that includes both candidates exists by the cutoff, the market resolves NO. If the applicable poll reports identical percentages for Hobbs and Biggs, the market resolves NO. If more than one applicable poll is tied for recency, use the poll VoteHub displays as most recent. If VoteHub is unavailable, use the poll with the latest fieldwork end date, then the later publication datetime, then the larger sample size as successive tiebreakers.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 22, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 23, 2026. The outcome will be settled against votehub.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 57%, based on 1 prediction.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith Hobbs currently leading Biggs 39% to 38% in the latest poll, it's likely she'll maintain that edge as we approach September 22. Expect her to be ahead then.

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Stable · last 24h

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