Will Russia publicly announce a new general or partial military mobilization?

39%
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71%
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YES if, no later than 03:00 on September 12, 2026, two or more independent international news organisations report that Houthi forces have seized and are in control of the Red Sea port city of Mokha (Mocha). The reporting must explicitly state that Houthi forces occupy and exercise control of the port or city. Reports that only describe fighting, entering, or clashes without asserting control do not count. If such reports are publicly retracted before 03:00 on September 12, 2026, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 11, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 12, 2026. The outcome will be settled against bbc.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 71%, based on 21 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the current situation and the timing, I doubt credible reports will confirm Houthi control of Mokha by the deadline. The conflict has been fluid, but clear control is another matter.

39%
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54%
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82%
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21%
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73%
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32%
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