Will at least one location in mainland Spain see totality during the August 12, 2026 total solar eclipse?

94%
Stable · last 24h

75%
Stable · last 24h
YES if the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (CONAGUA) post-event bulletin, the Veracruz state Protección Civil, or an official Veracruz government bulletin publicly states that at least one location inside the administrative boundaries of Veracruz experienced 'lluvias puntuales intensas' (75–150 mm in 24 hours) during the local calendar day August 12, 2026 (00:00 to 23:59 local time). Otherwise NO. The resolver may also accept major Mexican news outlets that quote those official sources.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 12, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 13, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 75%, based on 2 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven that the forecast doesn't show severe rain ahead, it's unlikely Veracruz will report those intense showers on the 12th.

94%
Stable · last 24h

27%
Stable · last 24h

45%
Stable · last 24h

84%
+1% last 24h

45%
-4% last 24h

28%
+2% last 24h
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