Will the U.S. and Iran publicly say they've concluded a bilateral agreement on managing the Strait of Hormuz?

15%
Stable · last 24h

74%
Stable · last 24h
YES if two or more independent, authoritative news outlets (for example AP, Reuters, BBC) report that Jared Kushner physically arrived and was present on the ground in both Israel and Egypt as part of the trip described in the AP article, preferably corroborated by public statements or press releases from the Board of Peace and the Israeli and Egyptian governments. If Kushner visited only one of the two countries, the trip was canceled, or reporting only repeats a planned trip without evidence of arrival, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 15, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 24, 2026. The outcome will be settled against apnews.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 74%, based on 18 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the timing, it's unlikely two credible outlets will confirm Kushner's presence in both Israel and Egypt before the market closes. I'd bet on NO here.

15%
Stable · last 24h

70%
Stable · last 24h

32%
Stable · last 24h

27%
Stable · last 24h

66%
Stable · last 24h

62%
Stable · last 24h
Cookies on Clutch
We use cookies to measure how Clutch is used and to show ads. Nothing is tracked until you choose. Privacy Policy