Will the US and Iran both publicly announce a mutual ceasefire by Aug 10, 2026?

13%
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44%
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YES if, no later than August 11, 2026, the Government of Saudi Arabia or Saudi Aramco issues a public, explicit statement or press release saying a Houthi attack on or about Aug. 9, 2026 damaged a Saudi Aramco oil facility in southwestern Saudi Arabia. Official confirmations quoted by major wire services such as AP, Reuters, or BBC also count. If an official Saudi or Aramco statement confirms the attack but says the facility was not damaged, that is NO, and if official statements conflict, the latest official Saudi government or Saudi Aramco statement as reported by major outlets controls. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 10, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 12, 2026. The outcome will be settled against apnews.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 44%, based on 48 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the current timeline, a statement is very likely to be issued soon, especially with the escalating tensions. I’d bet on a confirmation of damage from Saudi sources.

13%
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71%
Stable · last 24h

63%
Stable · last 24h

23%
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42%
Stable · last 24h

24%
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