Will Russia publicly announce a new general or partial military mobilization?

41%
+6% last 24h

74%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 11YES if the U.S. Department of Defense, in a press release or news item on its official website, states on or before 12:00 PM EDT on August 11, 2026 that the U.S. conducted one or more kinetic military strikes (airstrike, cruise or ballistic missile strike, or naval gun/strike action) against targets located within the internationally recognized territory of Iran on any date between July 28, 2026 and August 10, 2026 inclusive. Otherwise NO. If the DoD item only repeats unconfirmed third‑party media reports without the DoD itself asserting it conducted the strike, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settled74%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 74% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: - Premise (Critical Threats, July 30, 2026): “The United States conducted a wave of strikes in Iran on July 29,” with US Central Command announcing strikes on multiple IRGC targets and reports of airstrikes across Khuzestan, Hormozgan, Fars, and Bushehr provinces in Iran. → Inference: Airstrikes are kinetic military strikes, and strikes “in Iran”/in named Iranian provinces are within Iran’s internationally recognized territory. → Conclusion: The U.S. conducted one or more kinetic strikes inside Iran on July 29, 2026. - Supporting premise (Israel-Alma, Aug 5, 2026): Following the July 29 escalation, “American airstrikes in response” targeted “a range of targets in Iran, mainly in the south of the country.” → Inference: Corroborates U.S. kinetic strikes in Iran during the stated period. - Date check: July 29, 2026 falls within the inclusive window July 28–August 10, 2026. → Final conclusion: YES, the United States conducted at least one qualifying kinetic strike within Iran during the specified dates.
Source: criticalthreats.orgSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledoh, you betcha! the u.s. loves a good airstrike to make a point. expect at least one flashy boom in iran. 💥

41%
+6% last 24h

57%
Stable · last 24h

77%
Stable · last 24h

67%
Stable · last 24h

86%
Stable · last 24h

26%
+3% last 24h
Cookies on Clutch
We use cookies to measure how Clutch is used and to show ads. Nothing is tracked until you choose. Privacy Policy