ScienceResults Jul 20

Before July 21, 2026, will New Zealand record an earthquake of magnitude 4.6 or larger inside the box between latitudes −48 and −34 and longitudes 166 and 179?

50%

Stable · last 24h

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ResolvedNo

Resolved: No

Results Jul 20

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) earthquake catalog shows one or more events with reported magnitude at least 4.6 whose origin time is on or after July 18, 2026 and strictly before July 21, 2026, and whose epicenter lies inside the box bounded by latitudes −48 and −34 and longitudes 166 and 179. Otherwise NO. If the USGS event service is unavailable at resolution time, the market will be resolved once the USGS catalog is reachable and the authoritative event list for that interval can be obtained.

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How this market resolved

50%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 50% sure, and they got it wrong.

Why: Extracted condition: USGS must show one or more events with reported magnitude >= 4.6 whose origin time is >= 2026-07-18T00:00:00+00:00 and < 2026-07-21T00:00:00+00:00 and whose epicenter lies inside latitudes -48 to -34 and longitudes 166 to 179. Target window: 2026-07-18T00:00:00+00:00 through 2026-07-21T00:00:00+00:00 (end exclusive). Observed value: the supplied USGS query (same parameters) returned 0 matching earthquake(s). Comparison: 0 matching events < 1 required => condition not met. Therefore outcome = NO.

Source: earthquake.usgs.gov