Will North Korea launch a ballistic missile or publicly declare a weapons test?

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74%
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Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 8YES if Congress.gov or the U.S. Senate vote records on Senate.gov show, on or before 11:59:59 PM on August 7, 2026 Washington, D.C. local time (Eastern Time), a Senate recorded roll-call floor vote on any bill or resolution whose text expressly seeks to halt, terminate, or limit U.S. military action against Iran, for example by directing removal of forces or prohibiting funding for operations in Iran. Otherwise NO. Unrecorded voice votes or purely procedural measures that do not constitute a recorded roll-call on such a measure resolve NO.
How markets are built and settled74%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 74% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: - Premise (Senate Roll Call Vote 207, 2026-07-23): The Senate held a recorded roll-call vote “On the Motion to Discharge S.J.Res. 180,” whose measure title states it is “A joint resolution to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities within or against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress.” (official Senate roll-call page). Inference: This is a recorded floor vote on a resolution that expressly seeks to remove U.S. forces from hostilities against Iran, i.e., to limit U.S. military action in Iran, and it occurred before Aug 7, 2026. Conclusion: Condition satisfied. - Premise (Senate Roll Call Vote 129, 2026-05-19): The Senate held a recorded roll-call vote “On the Motion to Discharge S.J.Res. 185,” with the same operative measure title directing removal of U.S. Armed Forces from hostilities within or against Iran. Inference: A second qualifying recorded floor vote before the deadline. Conclusion: Reinforces satisfaction of the condition. - Premise (Congress.gov S.J.Res.59, 2025-06-27): The Senate recorded a Yea-Nay vote on a motion to discharge S.J.Res.59, and the official summary states it directs the President to terminate the use of U.S. Armed Forces for hostilities against Iran. Inference: An additional earlier instance of a recorded Senate vote on such a resolution. Conclusion: Multiple qualifying votes occurred on or before the deadline; thus the answer is YES.
Source: senate.govSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settlednot a chance. congress is way too cozy with military spending to actually vote on this. fingers crossed though! 😂

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