El Resumen · 11 de agosto de 2026

Por qué: Extracted condition: Binance BTC/USDT spot price at 2026-08-11T22:00:00Z must be >= USD 65,500 to resolve YES. Supplied observation: Binance hourly prices list price at 2026-08-11 22:00 UTC = 63672.73 USD. Comparison: 63672.73 < 65500, so the condition is not met. The exact required-timestamp observation is present in the supplied data, therefore outcome is NO.

Por qué: Extracted condition: Kalshi must finalize this market as YES if Netflix's weekly Global "Shows | English" chart published on 2026-08-11 lists the #1 show with numeric Views >= 12,000,000. Target chart date/window: chart published Aug 11, 2026 (week ending the previous Sunday). Observed value(s): Kalshi official ticker state for KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSTV-26AUG10-12 shows Official status: finalized and Official finalized result: NO. Comparison and conclusion: the market's resolution rule ties settlement to Kalshi's finalization; Kalshi has finalized this ticker as NO, therefore the market resolves NO.

Por qué: Multiple independent, dated sources in the supplied evidence show the Autumn Lane Fire’s acreage well under 10,000 on or before Aug 10, 2026. IQAir’s wildfire roundup (Aug 9) lists the Autumn Lane Fire at 5,781.9 acres. Local reporting in The Spokesman-Review (Aug 4) puts Autumn Lane at about 5,600 acres. The official InciWeb incident update published 08/10/2026 lists the Spokane Area Fires combined at 9,944 acres (and shows Autumn Lane at 73% containment), so the Autumn Lane Fire could not have exceeded 10,000 acres by that date. Those independent reports corroborate the conclusion that Autumn Lane did not exceed 10,000 acres on or before 2026-08-10.

Por qué: Extracted condition: Resolve YES if the rank‑1 entry on Box Office Mojo's Mexico weekend chart for 2026W32 (the Aug 7–Aug 9, 2026 weekend) is shown with the 'New This Week' indicator. Target window: weekend Aug 7–9, 2026 (2026W32). Observed data (Box Office Mojo 2026W32 Mexico): Rank 1 = 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day'; 'New This Week' = false. There is no tie at #1. Comparison: the #1 entry is not flagged 'New This Week', so the market resolves NO.

Por qué: Independent, corroborating evidence in the pool shows Harry Styles performed at Estadio GNP Seguros on 2026-08-10. A setlist.fm page documents a full Aug 10, 2026 setlist (songs and video links) for the venue, Billboard reports the Mexico City residency concluded on Monday night (Aug. 10) and describes Styles' activities that day, and a concerts/event listing (concerts50) shows the Aug 10 show as a past concert. None of the supplied sources report a cancellation or postponement for that date. Taken together these independent reports establish that he appeared and performed a live, public, ticketed concert at Estadio GNP Seguros on 2026-08-10.

Por qué: Multiple independent news updates in the supplied evidence show the Old Trails Fire had not been fully contained by the deadline. Columbia Basin Herald (2026-08-10) reports the Old Trails fire as 53% contained (update dated Aug 10), IQAir (2026-08-09) reports it 43% contained, and OPB (2026-08-06) reported much lower containment earlier; none of the provided sources reports 100% containment by 2026-08-10 23:59 PDT. Based strictly on these supplied sources, the fire was not 100% contained by the deadline.

Por qué: - Premise (Critical Threats, July 30, 2026): “The United States conducted a wave of strikes in Iran on July 29,” with US Central Command announcing strikes on multiple IRGC targets and reports of airstrikes across Khuzestan, Hormozgan, Fars, and Bushehr provinces in Iran. → Inference: Airstrikes are kinetic military strikes, and strikes “in Iran”/in named Iranian provinces are within Iran’s internationally recognized territory. → Conclusion: The U.S. conducted one or more kinetic strikes inside Iran on July 29, 2026. - Supporting premise (Israel-Alma, Aug 5, 2026): Following the July 29 escalation, “American airstrikes in response” targeted “a range of targets in Iran, mainly in the south of the country.” → Inference: Corroborates U.S. kinetic strikes in Iran during the stated period. - Date check: July 29, 2026 falls within the inclusive window July 28–August 10, 2026. → Final conclusion: YES, the United States conducted at least one qualifying kinetic strike within Iran during the specified dates.

Por qué: - Premise (KHQ Fairview community meeting article): It reports that at a Monday evening meeting in Mead, community members were told "the Fairview fire is now 97% contained," and that evacuation orders for the Fairview area were lifted. (KHQ link) - Premise (KXLY evacuation update article): It states that Monday is August 10, 2026, noting officials updated evacuation levels at approximately 2 p.m. that day. (KXLY link) - Inference: The "Monday evening" referenced by KHQ corresponds to August 10, 2026. If Fairview was 97% contained by Monday evening, then by no later than August 10, 2026, at least one of the listed fires (Fairview) had reached ≥50% containment. - Conclusion: YES — the Fairview Fire had ≥50% containment by August 10, 2026.

Por qué: Extracted condition: The market resolves YES if Box Office Mojo's Mexico weekend chart for 2026W32 (the August 7–9, 2026 weekend) lists the release shown on Box Office Mojo as exactly "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" at Rank 1 (ties for Rank 1 including that title also count as YES). Target window: August 7–9, 2026 (2026W32). Observed value(s): The supplied Box Office Mojo chart for Mexican Weekend 32 (August 7-9, 2026) shows Rank 1 = "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" with a weekend gross of $15,300,000 (row displays Rank = 1 and Release = "Spider-Man: Brand New Day"). Comparison: the title on the authoritative chart matches the required film name and its Rank is 1, satisfying the YES condition.

Por qué: Extracted condition: YES if the film at rank 1 on Box Office Mojo's Weekend Chart for 2026W31 (Jul 31–Aug 2, 2026) has an exact title string that does NOT appear anywhere on Box Office Mojo's Weekend Chart page for 2026W30 (Jul 24–26, 2026). Tie clause: if 2026W31 shows a tie for rank 1 and at least one tied film was not on 2026W30, YES. Observed (from supplied 2026W31 page): Rank 1 = "Spider-Man: Brand New Day". The row for that title shows LW (last week) = "-" and the "New This Week" flag = true, indicating Box Office Mojo records that this title was not on the previous weekend chart (2026W30). Comparison: Box Office Mojo's own 2026W31 data marks the rank‑1 title as new this week / not ranked last week, which satisfies the market condition that the exact title string does not appear on the 2026W30 weekend chart. Therefore the market resolves YES.

Por qué: Extracted condition: Box Office Mojo weekend chart for Aug 7–9, 2026 (2026W32) must list "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" at rank 1 (a tie for #1 that includes the film would also count as YES). Target window: Aug 7–9, 2026. Observed data (Box Office Mojo weekend 2026W32 table): "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" is listed at Rank 1 with weekend gross $144,254,386. Comparison: observed rank 1 matches the condition, so the market resolves YES.

Por qué: Extracted condition: At least one release on Box Office Mojo's Spain weekend chart for 2026W32 must be listed at Rank = 1 and flagged 'New This Week'. Target: Box Office Mojo Spain weekend chart 2026W32 (the supplied page is labelled August 7–9, 2026). Observations from the supplied chart for 2026W32: Rank 1 = Moana with 'New This Week' = false. (Also shown: Rank 2 Toy Story 5 'New This Week' = false; Rank 3 The Devil Wears Prada 2 'New This Week' = false.) No tie for Rank 1 is shown. Comparison: the Rank 1 entry is not flagged 'New This Week', so the condition is not met. Outcome: NO.

Por qué: Extracted condition: Mexico City's recorded daily maximum temperature for the local calendar day 2026-08-10 (00:00–23:59:59 local) is >= 21.0 °C (equality counts). Observed value from the supplied Open-Meteo data: 2026-08-10 daily max = 23.6 °C (marked recorded). Comparison: 23.6 °C ≥ 21.0 °C, so the condition is satisfied. The value is recorded (retrieved 2026-08-11 local), so it is usable to settle the market.

Por qué: Extracted condition: Open-Meteo daily maximum temperature for New York City on local calendar day 2026-08-10 >= 32.0 °C. Observed value from supplied Open-Meteo data: Monday 2026-08-10: max 31.8 °C (recorded). Comparison: 31.8 °C < 32.0 °C, so the condition is not met. Open-Meteo published a numeric daily maximum for that date and per the market rule that value is used to settle.

Por qué: Multiple independent sources in the supplied evidence report Dolphin's peak 1‑minute maximum sustained winds at 165 mph (270 km/h) during its 2026 lifecycle (e.g. Yale Climate Connections and NASA Earthdata explicitly report 165 mph, and TechTimes likewise cites a 165 mph peak). Several items in the pool note forecasts or expectations of 160–170 mph, but none of the provided sources report an observed 1‑minute sustained wind ≥170 mph on or before 2026-08-11 12:00. Therefore, based on the supplied evidence, Dolphin did not reach at least 170 mph 1‑minute sustained by the cutoff date/time.